如何使用蒙地卡羅模擬器

1. Set your win rate — Your historical win percentage (e.g., 55%)
2. Enter R:R ratio — Your average risk/reward (e.g., 1:2 means enter 2)
3. Risk per trade — What % of capital you risk per trade
4. Number of trades — How many trades to simulate per run
5. Simulations — More simulations = more accurate results
6. Click Run Simulation — See thousands of possible outcomes

什麼是蒙地卡羅模擬？

Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical technique that uses random sampling to model the probability of different outcomes. In trading, it helps you understand:

• What to expect — The range of possible equity curves
• Risk of ruin — Probability your account drops to dangerous levels
• Strategy viability — Whether your edge produces consistent profits over time

Interpreting Results

• Median vs Mean — If mean » median, your strategy has high upside variance
• 95th percentile — Best realistic outcome (top 5%)
• 5th percentile — Worst realistic outcome (prepare for this)
• Probability of Profit — How often the strategy ends profitable

為什麼每個交易者都需要這個

Most traders overestimate their edge. A Monte Carlo simulation strips away optimism and shows you the cold, hard probability distribution of your strategy’s outcomes.

風險免責聲明

CFD trading involves significant risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Monte Carlo simulations are theoretical models and actual results may vary.

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