如何使用 the Kelly Criterion Calculator

1. Enter your win rate — Historical percentage of winning trades
2. Average win — Mean profit per winning trade
3. Average loss — Mean loss per losing trade
4. Total capital — Your current trading account balance
5. Click Calculate — Get optimal position sizing

什么是 the Kelly Criterion?

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that determines the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize long-term capital growth. Developed by John Kelly at Bell Labs in 1956.

Formula: Kelly % = (bp - q) / b

• b = win/loss ratio
• p = probability of winning
• q = probability of losing (1 - p)

为什么 Use Half Kelly?

Most professional traders use Half Kelly or even Quarter Kelly because:

• Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but extremely volatile
• Half Kelly gives ~75% of the growth with ~50% of the drawdown
• It provides a psychological buffer for estimation errors

Key Warning

The Kelly Criterion assumes your win rate and win/loss ratio are accurate and stable. Overestimating either leads to dangerous over-sizing.

风险免责声明

CFD交易涉及重大风险。 过去的表现不能保证未来的结果。 Use Kelly sizing as a guide, not an absolute rule.

推荐经纪商

Smart position sizing needs a broker with flexible lot sizes. UZFX — micro lots from 0.01, 最低入金 just $10.