📈 Trading Expectancy Calculator

Calculate the expected value (expectancy) of your trading strategy per trade and over time.

How to Use the Expectancy Calculator

  1. Enter your win rate — Historical winning trade percentage
  2. Average win — Mean profit from winning trades
  3. Average loss — Mean loss from losing trades
  4. Trades per month — Your typical trading frequency
  5. Starting capital — Current account balance

What is Trading Expectancy?

Expectancy tells you how much you can expect to earn (or lose) per trade on average. It’s the single most important metric for evaluating a trading system.

Formula: Expectancy = (Win% × Avg Win) - (Loss% × Avg Loss)

Interpreting Your Results

  • Positive expectancy — Your strategy makes money over time ✅
  • Negative expectancy — Your strategy loses money over time ❌
  • R-Multiple — Expectancy normalized by risk (0.5R+ is good, 1R+ is excellent)

Example

A strategy with 55% win rate, $250 avg win, $100 avg loss:

  • Expectancy = (0.55 × $250) - (0.45 × $100) = $137.50 - $45 = $92.50 per trade
  • At 20 trades/month = $1,850/month

Risk Disclaimer

CFD trading involves significant risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Expectancy is calculated from historical data and may not reflect future performance.

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